If he does [lose], it wouldn’t be the first time that polls have overstated support for an African-American candidate. Since 1982, people have talked about the Bradley effect, where even last-minute polls predict a wide margin of victory, yet the black candidate goes on to lose, or win in a squeaker. (In the case that lent the phenomenon its name, Tom Bradley, the mayor of Los Angeles, lost his race for governor, the assumption being that voters lied to pollsters about their support for an African-American.)

Other lesser-known effects that might hurt the Democrats’ chances this November:

The Barone Effect – Named after Colby Barone, the black gubernatorial candidate in the 1984 Pennsylvania election, who though predicted to win by a large margin lost in a squeaker after election officials enforced the little known “Sorry, no blacks” law.

The Butterfly Effect – Named after Tom Butterfly, the black mayoral candidate in the 1992 Denver election, who though predicted to win in a landslide lost by a thin margin after a hand gesticulation in a speech caused a tsunami that inexplicably wiped out the majority of the black constituency.

The Special Effect – With this effect, on the night of the election, computer-generated images (CGI) of aliens attacking the White House shown on TV distract the public while votes cast for the heavily favored black candidate are burned in a large incinerator.

The Cause and Effect – An effect whereby the candidate with the most votes wins regardless of the color of his or her skin or which party he or she belongs to.*

*Not always applicable in elections with blatant corruption, racist voting procedures, or the Electoral College.

Tags: politics, barack obama, tom bradley, exciting new ways for the democrats to lose, the electoral college, the bradley effect